Notes
Slide Show
Outline
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The Grape/Wine Market in the Global Marketplace
  • Glenn Proctor, Partner
  • Joseph W. Ciatti Co., LLC
  • San Rafael, Ca
  • Phone: 415/458-5150
  • Fax: 415/458-5160
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Points to Discuss
  • Sales Update
  • Grape/Wine Market
  • International
  • The Future
  • Questions
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Wine Shipments YTD
 (Nov ‘06 )
  • Wine shipments +2.2% (bttld) 2.2% Overall YTD
  • GFA Premium Wine Index +7%
    • Premium growth offset by losses in economy wines
  • Bulk Exports +2% YTD; Bottled -2% YTD
    • Limited gain given world supply
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Wine Shipments YTD
(Nov ‘06)
  • Imports growing faster than domestic
    • Total imports to US + 9% (bottled +2%, Bulk +109%) CA > US +2.8%
    • Australia +4%; Spain +13%; France +24% (mostly bulk)
    • Imports could reach 30% of all wine consumed in U.S. by end of the year.
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Wine Shipments YTD
(Nov ‘06)
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2006 Winegrape Market
  • PINOT, PINOT, PINOT!!!!  Large Statewide


  • CH picked up late; CS and ME unsold or custom crushed


  • ’05 Hangover - Major wineries on sideline or selling fruit/wine


  • Notice on existing contracts – Growers have been willing to Custom Crush


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Central Coast Tons
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Central Coast Prices
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Central Coast White Grape Tonnages
2002 – 2006
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Central Coast White Grape Pricing
2003 - 2006
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Central Coast Red Grape Tonnages
2002 –2006
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Central Coast Red Grape Tonnages Cont.
2002 –2006
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Central Coast Red Grape Pricing
2003 - 2006
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Central Coast Red Grape Pricing Cont.
2003 - 2006
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2007 Grape Market Outlook
  • Overall Market will improve
  • CH continues to strengthen – especially Santa Barbara & No. Mont. Cty
  • PN Strong – but less pkg deals.  Spot Mkt will soften
  • SY weakness outside of varietal market
  • CS will show signs of improvement – prices still below expectations – Opportunistic buyers
  • ME continues to be challenged.  Significant amts of grafting
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California Bulk Market
  • VERY LARGE Carry-over of ’05- working thru it
  • Current Central Coast Bulk Market
    • CH – Balanced (’05 Long)
    • CS – Long
    • ME – Long
    • ZN – Balanced
    • PN - Short
  • Market has begun to recover
    • Normal Buyers reappearing
    • Middle of market beginning to return
    • Seeing activity on ’05 Cabernet
    • ‘05 will be used in other vintages
    • Good Initial ’06 Activity
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CHARDONNAY
  • Pricing
  • Valley $3.00 – 4.00
  • Coastal $6.00 – 9.00
  •         (’05 $3.50 – 5.25)
  • Napa/Sonoma $10.00 – 15.00
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MERLOT
  • Pricing
  • Valley $2.50 – 4.00
  • Coastal $4.00 – 7.00
  • Napa/Sonoma $6.00 – 12.00
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CAB SAUV
  • Pricing
  • Valley $2.50 – 4.50
  • Coastal $4.50 – 8.00
  • Napa/Sonoma $8.00 – 22.00
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ZINFANDEL
  • Pricing
  • Valley $6.00 – 8.50
  • Coastal $8.00 – 10.00
  • Napa/Sonoma $10.00 – 16.00
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PINOT NOIR
  • Pricing
  • Valley N/A – N/A
  • Coastal $14.00 – 20.00
  • Napa/Sonoma $20.00 – 25.00
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SAUV BLANC
  • Pricing
  • Valley $3.50 – 4.50
  • Coastal $5.00 – 7.00
  • Napa/Sonoma $7.00 – 10.00
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SYRAH
  • Pricing
  • Valley $3.50 – 5.50
  • Coastal $5.00 – 8.50
  • Napa/Sonoma $9.00 – 14.00
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USA vs. World
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Global Winegrape Production 2006
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Australian Production
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Imported Wine Shipments Bulk/Bottled YTD Sept
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International View
  • All wineries weighing global opportunities – the supply is there!
  • Bulk importing could increase category base w/ short varieties  – produce future CA demand?
  • Imports will continue to grow if consumers indifferent and cost advantages exist
  • CA must compete based on quality and price
  • Need Understanding CentralCoast/CA/World Supply/Demand Balance
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"’06 Crop severly impacted by..."
  • ’06 Crop severly impacted by ’05 hangover
  • Strong early season bulk activity
  • Market should strengthen, when we move through ’05 bulk, Ltd. New Acres/Growing Demand
  • CC is still oversupplied relative to Premium Brand Development
  • ’07 grape demand to improve – longer term contracts CH/PN
  • PN may soften on spot, but will remain solid
  • Long term effects to CA of off shore sourcing?
  • “Future looking Brighter”
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E- Newsletter
  • To sign up for our E-Newsletter
  • “Ciatti Insight”


  • Email Lora at
  • Lora@ciatti.com


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Thank You for your time
and Attention

  • Joseph W. Ciatti Co., LLC
  • Glenn Proctor/ Chris Welch
  • T.415/458-5150
  • E. glenn@ciatti.com
  • www.ciatti.com